基于小波变换与神经网络的石羊河流域夏季地温预测模型研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

贾东于  李开明  聂晓英  袁春霞  李清峰  高福元 《冰川冻土》2020,42(2):412-422

地温变化在气候反馈效应中起着重要作用， 理解地温及其与影响因素之间的时空关系对预测全球温度变化至关重要。利用1998 - 2017年石羊河流域的逐日常规气象观测资料， 采用小波分析结合BP（Back Propagation）神经网络构建了石羊河流域夏季地温预报模型， 结果表明： 日平均地温预测效果在不同站点均为最佳， 其中预测值和观测值的相关系数均大于0.87， 3 ℃以内的预测概率均大于84%。其中， 民勤地区地温预测效果最好， 预测值和观测值的相关系数达到0.91， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到86%。日最高地温的预测值与观测值的相关系数高于0.8， 但误差平方和、 标准差较大。永昌地区日最高地温的模拟效果最好， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到83%。日最低地温的预测与观测值的平均相关系数高于0.66， 3 ℃以内的预报概率高于83%， 但预测值略低。其中， 武威地区日最低地温的预测效果最好， 预测值与观测值的相关系数为0.72， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到94%。研究成果可为有效弥补干旱、 半干旱区地温观测资料缺失和探讨其与局地气候的关系提供一些参考。  相似文献   

毛乌素沙区1961-2016年降水特征     

张雪琴  刘树林  冯坤  郭紫晨  康文平  陈翔  支莹 《中国沙漠》2019,39(6):141-150

基于毛乌素沙区10个气象站1961-2016年观测资料，应用Mann-Kendall方法和t检验法对各气象站年降水量进行了突变检验，借助小波分析讨论了各气象站年降水量的周期特征，根据降水量等值线划分结果对整个研究区分区分析了年、季、月和日尺度上的降水变化特征，并在两个时段上分析了季节性降水的差异。结果表明：毛乌素沙区年降水量空间特征差异明显，东部亚区呈上升趋势，中西部亚区呈下降趋势，但变化趋势不显著且无突变发生；降水年内分配不均，干湿季分明，降水集中在5-9月，夏秋季降水占全年降水比重大，季、月和日尺度降水量存在梯度递减变化；年降水量的年际变化过程存在多重时间尺度的自相似结构；近26年的冬春季降水增加显著，但降水波动幅度小于前30年。  相似文献   

基于小波变换的射频干扰消除方法的研究          下载免费PDF全文

林天琪  吴亚军  朱人杰  徐志骏 《天文学报》2021,62(3):29

在射电天文观测中,射频干扰(Radio Frequency Interference, RFI)会以多种形式混入望远镜接收系统,给观测带来误判或者降低观测信噪比.近年来国内国际射电天文快速发展,国内国际大型射电望远镜和阵列先后建设,观测灵敏度大为提高,射频干扰的影响尤为突出.随着科技发展和人类活动的加剧,射频干扰日益严重且不可逆转.提出利用2维离散小波变换的方法分析射电天文观测的数据,对望远镜系统输出的时间频率序列进行小波变换,根据小波系数分离出原始信号中各分量,每个分量统计得到相应的阈值,将各分量与阈值相比较识别干扰成分并标记去除.利用该方法对实际观测数据进行了处理,结果表明该方法能够很好地标记并消减干扰信号,且提高了观测的信噪比.  相似文献   

Snowmelt characteristics in a pristine mountain catchment of the Jalovecký Creek,Slovakia, over the last three decades     

Ladislav Holko  Michal Danko  Patrik Sleziak 《水文研究》2021,35(4):e14128

The Jalovecký Creek catchment, Slovakia (area 22.2 km², mean elevation 1500 m a.s.l.), is likely the last big valley complex in the Carpathian Mountains, in which the hydrological cycle is still governed by natural processes. Hydrological research is conducted there since the end of the 1980s. The overall mission of the research is to increase the knowledge about the hydrological cycle in the highest part of the Carpathians. The research agenda, briefly introduced in the first part of this article, is focused on water balance, snow accumulation and melt and runoff formation. Recent analysis of precipitation, discharge, snow cover and isotopic data from period 1989–2018 indicates that hydrological cycle has become more dynamic since 2014. Although several indicators suggest that it could be related to the cold part of the year, direct links with snow storage and the contribution of snowmelt water to catchment runoff were not confirmed. The second part of the article is therefore focused on an analysis of daily cycles in streamflow in March to June 1988–2018 to obtain a deeper insight into the snowmelt process. We describe characteristics of the cycles and examine their variability over the study period. The results indicate that less snow at the lowest elevations (800–1150 m a.s.l.) since 2009 could have influenced the cessation of the cycles in June since 2010. The possible role of the decreased amount of snow at the lowest elevations in changes in runoff characteristics is also suggested by an increase in time lags between maximum discharges during the events and maximum air temperatures preceding discharge maxima measured near the catchment outlet (at 750 m a.s.l.) in spring 2018 compared to springs with a similar number of streamflow cycles in the years 1988, 2000 and 2009. Wavelet analysis did not indicate changes in global power spectra in hourly discharge and air temperature data.  相似文献   

基于SPEI的渭河流域干旱时空变化特征分析          下载免费PDF全文

邹磊  余江游  夏军  王飞宇 《干旱区地理》2020,43(2):329-338

以标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）作为评估指标，基于渭河流域28个气象站点1961—2017年实测降水量和气温数据，采用Mann-Kendall（M-K）趋势检验、经验正交函数以及小波变换等方法分析渭河流域干旱时空变化特征，并研究渭河流域干旱与6种大尺度气候因子之间的相关关系，进一步探讨主要气候因子对流域干旱时空分布特征的潜在影响。研究表明：渭河流域在1961—2017年间整体呈现出变旱的趋势。通过经验正交函数分解，渭河流域干旱分布场主要有3种典型模态类型，分别为全局型、西北—东南反向分布型以及东—西反向分布型；同时，大尺度气候因子南方涛动指数SOI与流域干旱分布场具有更好的相关关系，对该区域内干旱变化有较强的影响。  相似文献   

Variation characteristics of evaporation in the Gulang River Basin during 1959-2013     

TingTing Wang  JianGuo Li  ZongXing Li 《寒旱区科学》2020,12(4):252-260

Based on monthly evaporation of two meteorological stations in the Gulang River Basin of China, the inter-annual variation of evaporation during 1959-2013 were analyzed using Mann-Kendall and wavelet analysis. The results demonstrated that the annual evaporation show a fluctuating increase over the past 50 years approximately, with an average increase rate of 4.26 mm per decade. The overall trend was decrease-increase-decrease. According to the cumulative anomaly curve,the turning point of the annual evaporation occurred in 1979, in which the evaporation increased in the early stage and decreased in the later stage. Meanwhile, the seasonal variation of the evaporation shows that it decreased in Spring and Autumn, and increased in Summer and Winter, especially obvious for the later. The evaporation abruptly changed in Spring and Summer in 2008 and in Winter in 1994. In addition, all evaporation increased after the changes. However,the evaporation in Autumn abruptly changed in 1986 and 1999, which show a trend of increase-decrease-increase.Wavelet analysis shows that evaporation in Summer and wet season would decrease in the next few years, and in the other seasons would increase. Based on the aforementioned analysis, it can be concluded that increased evaporation is mainly induced by increase of evaporation in dry season, especially in Winter, and this trend to be continued in the future for the Gulang River Basin.  相似文献   

长山群岛海洋渔业资源的平均营养级变化特征     

孙才志  曹威威  肖春柳 《海洋通报》2019,38(1):87-95

根据长山群岛 1965-2016 年渔业统计资料，分析长山群岛海域主要捕捞渔获物产量、平均营养级 （Mean trophic level， MTL）、渔业均衡指数 （Fishing in balance index，FiB） 年际变化，探讨其海洋渔业资源利用状况，并利用小波分析方法研究52年来渔获物 MTL 周期变化特征。研究表明： （1） 长山群岛捕捞产量、MTL 和 FiB 指数呈阶段性变化； （2） 长山群岛渔业资源开发经历初期开发、扩张捕捞、过度捕捞、资源破坏等四个阶段，渔业资源环境正在逐渐恶化；（3） 受人类捕捞活动影响，MTL 在 15~19 年和 24~34 年两种时间尺度下呈周期波动，30 年为第一主周期，17 年为第二主周期。长山群岛渔业资源破坏日益严重，未来几年平均营养级将呈下降趋势。为防止渔业资源进一步衰退，应加强捕捞活动管理力度，落实海洋渔业资源保护制度；完善预警机制，构建海洋渔业资源监测系统；同时应积极调整长山群岛渔业产业结构，提高资源产出效率.  相似文献   

南海北部海域油气资源调查技术及其应用研究——震源子波检测及模拟分析          下载免费PDF全文

曾宪军  翟继锋  韦成龙 《海洋技术学报》2019,38(2)

在野外采集中考察气枪的稳定性以及室内进行确定性子波反褶积处理,都要求能够获得气枪阵列的实时远场子波。从震源子波检测方法出发,阐述了近场子波采集、幅值转换及记录流程,并列举出实测近场子波时需要考虑解决的问题;接着介绍了震源远场子波的获取方法和主要途径;震源近场子波及远场子波的实测方案,检测震源子波所需的仪器设备和采集技术方法。文中分析了气枪子波的气泡干扰问题,虚反射与后续气泡震荡间的关系以及吸收衰减对子波的影响,并根据实测远场子波,对齐氏和范氏两种气体模型进行了模拟效果对比,结果表明:采用范氏气体模型所模拟的子波与实际子波更为吻合,模拟出的气枪的子波波形、振幅大小、气泡周期上,与业界通用的Nucleus软件的模拟结果吻合较好,在后续的使用中将继续优化。  相似文献   

A New Wavelet Method for Identification of Eddies and Assessment of Incidents on Islands of the Eastern Caribbean     

Jason D. Tambie  Madiha Farag-Miller  Keith Miller  Bheshem Ramlal  Michael Sutherland 《Marine Geodesy》2019,42(3):227-245

Using two dimensional continuous wavelet transforms, a novel method for identification of mesoscale eddies is presented to facilitate extraction of characteristics for area, amplitude, type, and location from maps of sea level anomalies. In comparison with the previously established growing method for eddy identification, it is found that the wavelet method identifies more than twice the number of eddies and is particularly better at resolving small eddies down to the 0.25 degree resolution of the data. Such research into eddy identification and tracking is significant to the assessment of eddies with potential to impact on coastlines of small islands. The method is applied to the identification of eddies on tracks towards islands of the Eastern Caribbean over 23?years. Spatial and temporal variation in rate of occurrence and magnitude is established. For Barbados there is an average of 9 anticyclonic incidents a year with maximum amplitude of typically 0.22?m in the dry seasons and 0.16?m in the wet seasons. Seasonal variation is reversed for the other islands with twice the number of anticyclonic incidents having maximum amplitudes of about 0.20?m annually.  相似文献   

基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测     

李建新  刘小生  肖钢  周文  刘仁志 《大地测量与地球动力学》2020,40(6):577-580

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。  相似文献